Sep 7, 2017

Week 1 DFS Targets

By: @SMich_5 and @DFS_mathlete

The wait is almost over, and another off season of moves, trades, cuts, and questionable draft choices (your own and your favorite team’s GMs) is nearly complete. With Week 1 starting it’s time to shift focus from season long fantasy decisions and make some short term moves. The DFS season has arrived and here are a few recommendations based on their pricing that should be targets for your lineups heading into Week 1.

QB

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles

Wentz is priced nicely for his position and matchup this weekend. Only $5300 in DraftKings which by the way is less than Derek Anderson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Andrew Luck. Wentz has a nice matchup against Washington’s 19th ranked defense for points allowed and 28th in terms of yards allowed. Wentz has looked sharp this preseason and at that price, he is a strong bet to outperform his value.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

Cam is a solid play on Fanduel where he is the 7th highest priced QB (compared to 4th highest price QB on DraftKings). Carolina are road favorites with as of right now the 4th highest implied team total.

RB

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Kamara has seen his stock rise dramatically this past week. The suspension of Willie Snead has freed up a spot in the slot where Snead produced 56 receptions and 707 yards. Looking at the current situation, Michael Thomas will work mostly on the outside, Ingram is being set up as the starting back, Peterson isn’t the ideal slot guy, and Fleener might see a boost here, but for the price, only $3500, Kamara offers a great value. He simultaneously offers up tons of DFS flexibility in your roster, but also has the potential to offer an excellent return on investment. He was a standout in his two preseason games and has shown tremendous burst and escapability. According to Pro Football Focus, on his 40 receptions last year in college, he caused 23 missed tackles; that is someone who can excel in Sean Payton’s system. He was a sure handed back coming out of Tennessee and has experience working out of the slot. This might be a risk, but I think Kamara easily outproduces his price and could see 5-8 targets and he has the burst to turn any touch into big yardage. There aren’t many options at this price with this kind of upside.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills

In the battle of tanking teams, McCoy has a tasty matchup against the Jets. The Jets just traded away their best defensive player Sheldon Richardson which should open up running lanes for McCoy. Head coach Sean McDermott recently said of McCoy’s workload “whatever it takes to win” so expect major volume. It was reported on 9/7/17 by Adam Schefter that the Bills have added $2.5 million in production based incentives to McCoy’s contract which should give him a little more motivation. McCoy is a good pivot if you want to move away from LeVeon Bell or David Johnson.

WR

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

Fitzgerald is a guy that you want to play early in the season because in the last couple of years he faded down the stretch. He starts off the season with an amazing matchup against the Lions. The Lions slot cornerback is Quandre Diggs one of the lowest ranked slot cornerbacks in the leagues after a rough 2016 season. He should be a lock on in your lineups especially at a reasonable price of $5,900 on DraftKings.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants

Shepard’s value seemed to take a hit heading into the year with the addition of Brandon Marshall. But the unsure status of Odell has opened the window again for the second year wideout. Marshall exists as more of an outside threat, and if Odell is out, he would become the main target on the outside, leaving Shepard to operate in space in the middle. Shepard is more familiar to Eli than Marshall or 2017 draft pick Evan Engram, so he should be a nice security blanket for Eli to lean on down in Dallas. Eli has also gone 3+ TDs in Dallas three of the last four times he’s played there, including one to Shepard in Week 1 last year.

TE

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

Ertz is a bargain at his price in DraftKings ($3500) and I would expect to see a lot of QB/TE stacks with Ertz and Wentz in Week 1. Ertz had a huge game against Washington the last time he played them, and he should be in line for another good day against a defense that ranked 25th against TEs last year (per Football Outsiders). Wentz will have two new receivers on the oustide in Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith and a slot receiver who approaches catching the football much in the same way that Roger Goodell approaches fair disciplinary hearings. Ertz will get plenty of targets this week and has the skills to put them to good use.

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