Nov 26, 2017
So I want to be upfront with anyone reading (there are literally dozens of you), but this week’s article format is going to be a little different. Normally, I’ll do research into a couple of guys at each position and discuss some potential targets with @DFS_mathlete before settling on a few to highlight here and digging into the research. This week, with the holidays and life in general crashing my normal routine, I didn’t have quite enough time to do a full round of research. So, this week, I will run a slightly larger list of guys I think will be good plays this week with a shorter write up about why. These targets are all designed to help construct a lineup with some of the the high price options at each position, as the top guys this week have some very positive matchups. Lastly, I want to give everyone some advance notice that I most likely won’t be putting up an article next week. I’m going to be traveling and probably won’t have time for a full article, but I will be trying to have a larger presence on twitter throughout the week so hopefully I can still offer people some additional insights into the games. We appreciate the readership and hope you come back for Week 14 when we can return to the normal schedule of content. So, with that out of the way, here’s who I like this week.
This week I expect a lot of ownership for Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan but here are some lower priced alternatives.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
Back in as the starter after the Nathan Peterson incident, Taylor faces a KC defense giving up the 10th most points against opposing QBs (standard and DraftKings), and the 7th most rushing yards to QBs. Taylor will likely be down, and will be without Kelvin Benjamin and maybe also Jordan Matthews. Say Jones has been better the last few weeks and Deonte Thompson has had his moments, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Taylor racked up a good amount of yardage on the ground and some good garbage time numbers. And if the Bills are down, I don’t think they want to run out Peterman again in a situation where hey will need to pass.
Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins
It’s not a great play, as New England has been better the last few weeks defensively, but if you believe in the power of the Kenny Stills/Matt Moore connection, Moore could be a very interesting play that will have a low ownership number. The Pats might be a little thin in the secondary with Malcolm Brown and Eric Rowe questionable. Rowe in particular puts Jarvis Landry in a much better spot in the slot. Moore is very cheap, only $4800, and could easily be in the 275 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT range, which would be a great return on him.
Running back is super top heavy this week, with many of the top guys having great matchups to go with their elite skill sets. Ownership will be high for Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Le’Veon Bell, and the Saints tandem, and they are all good plays, but to afford them you’ll need some cheaper values.
Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns
Duke was a preseason favorite of mine for season long fantasy leagues, and he’s been a great source of value when the matchups have been favorable. Duke will be getting the majority of work as the Browns coaches have finally committed to getting him a starter’s workload to evaluate what he can do for them in the future. The Bengals are giving up an average of 25.0 points per game vs. RBs and if Duke is in line to get the bulk of that work, he will be a great value on his $4600 price.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos
The Denver RB committee is slowly starting to come into focus, as Booker outworked C.J. Anderson last week and Jamaal Charles has settled in to high single digit touches per game. Booker was expected by many to win this starting job outright at the start of the season, but a wrist injury prevented that. Anderson didn’t do much with the opportunity and now Booker is ready to step in. He’s always been the best receiving back of the group and his week 12 opponent, the Oakland Raiders, are very susceptible to RBs, especially in coverage. They are giving up the 3rd most receptions per game, 7th most receiving yards, and 2nd most receiving TDs to RBs. Booker is only $3700 and could be in store for a big day.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Another Bronco I expect to do perform against the Raiders, Sanders hasn’t seen his production disappear with QB Paxton Lynch like some might think. He’s had a 35% target share from Lynch (Demaryius Thomas is at 21%) and averages close to 12 points in PPR formats without accounting for any touchdowns when Lynch has been the QB. That’s a decent floor against the Raiders, who are giving up 34.0 PPG to WRs. I expect Sanders to see the majority of that production even with the ankle issue he’s been dealing with lately.
Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills
Yes, I know Jones was terrible to start the year. He was ranked as one of the worst WRs in the league in several metrics, but he was always going to be a project at this level in his rookie year. Fantasy success means not always relying on the narratives built around players without checking the numbers, and Jones’ numbers have been much better lately with 17.3 and 10.8 points the last two weeks the Bills have played. He’s also seen no fewer than 5 targets since week 5 and has begun to convert that usage into good production. The Bills have a nice matchup against KC, who ranks 28th in defensive DVOA vs WR1, and Jones will be the top target with Kelvin Benjamin having been ruled out and Jordan Matthews playing at less than 100% because of a knee injury.
Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals
Kroft was a target last week, and is back again in this space this week. Since the Bengals bye week, Kroft has gone 12.3, 9.6, 9.9, 1.4, and 9.2 points. He’s been about as productive and consistent as any of the streaming TEs this year. The Browns have been a funnel defense this year and surrender the second most points against TEs in DraftKings. Kroft is still only $3900, marking the second time he’s reached this personal high salary. In a week where the top TEs will be great plays, Kroft makes for a great pivot.
Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders
The only other defense giving up more points per game to TEs in DraftKings than the Browns is Cook’s opponent this week, the Denver Broncos. There were all kinds of crazy reports coming out about the Broncos this week, and this team can’t afford any additional distractions. At $4600, Cook has a great chance to hit value and could go well beyond that as a great check down for Derek Carr while his top two outside options will see Chris Harris and maybe Aqib Talib in coverage. Carr has struggled playing the Broncos in the past, having never scored more than 14 points against them and has been held to single digits the last two times, but this isn’t the same Denver defense. Cook has gone for 19.7, 9.7, and 23.6 points before a 5.6 point dud against the Patriots. He’s become a consistent part of the Raiders passing attack and is a good value play.Back to DFS