Sep 28, 2017

By: @SMich_5 and @DFS_mathlete

We’ll be hitting the quarter mark of the season for most teams this week and there are still a lot of questions. We’re getting close to the part of the season where we can see value a little clearer and a big name won’t be enough to keep a guy in a fantasy roster, daily or traditional. This week also will be interesting to watch after the big uptick in on-field product from week 3. Will the scoring continue to rise, or will Week 3 prove to be an anomaly in a season long narrative where the quality of the games has been down?

QB

Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos

There are a lot of high priced QBs in good spots, but Siemian is the play you want if you save salary at QB. He had a bad week last week so his ownership will probably be low but Siemian put up 23 and 24 DraftKings points in Week 1 and Week 2. He now faces an Oakland Defense at home that last week played on Sunday night in D.C. and gave up 365 passing yards and 3 passing TDs. Oakland has been average against the run, but has shown can be beaten in the air.

WR

Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans

Tennessee has an important early division game against Houston, and with Jacksonville suddenly fulfilling their potential, this game will be important. Houston has been good against the run so far this year so Titans’ smash mouth style will be put to the test. When they do throw, they will again be down rookie Corey Davis, who has already been ruled out for this week, and will feature Eric Decker, Matthews, and Taywan Taylor. This suited Matthews just fine last week, as he posted a big day with Richard Sherman locking down Decker. Matthews was the leading receiver last year and Mariota has shown a high level of comfort throwing to him in any situation. Houston will be down Kevin Johnson in the defensive backfield and the other starter, Jonathan Joseph left the game two weeks ago with a banged up shoulder before being run ragged last week against the Pats. Matthews is the Titans leading receiver in yardage and targets and also has the most plays of 20+ yards. He’s been a playmaker for Tennessee his year and is under $5000 in DraftKings, leaving a lot of roster flexibility while offering a high ceiling.

RB

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

We are slowly getting some clarity when it comes to the Seattle backfield. Carson was the busiest back and he seems poised to break through with a big performance. The Seattle offense showed some signs of life this past week, as they scored more points in the second half than they did in each of their first two games. Carson put up his second good scoring day in a row, after putting up a career high 93 rushing yards in Week 2 he followed that up with his first career touchdown last week. The Seahawks offense found some success against a solid defense in Tennessee and it wasn’t the offense that lost the game. Pete Carroll is a coach that has shown he favors production over a vet with a bigger contract who can’t get the job done, and despite the lip service being paid to Lacy, Carson gives them the best chance to win. Up to this point, Carson has out snapped the other RBs by a combined count of 117 to 84 with most (60) of those going to C.J. Prosise, who is reportly most likely not playing this week. Finding any starting back with a home date against the Colts for cheap in DFS is a good deal, especially one with the talent Carson has. Start him here and hope for the breakout game that has been brewing the last couple of weeks.

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals

After losing fantasy everything, David Johnson, most people assumed Kerwynn Williams would assume the bulk of the work in the Cardinals backfield. But he has yet to make a real impact for Arizona and has been passed over by the artist formerly known as CJ2K, and Andre Ellington. Chris Johnson has been a mere shell of the former game breaker that made you scared anytime he got the ball, and his time may have come. Ellington was actually viewed as the main guy most fantasy players wanted in the Ariozna backfield heading into the 2015 season before Chris Johnson signed with Arizona and threw that plan out the window. Now, in a post-DJ world, Ellington looks to be the guy again. He has more burst and can approximate more of the things the Cards offense does when DJ is playing. He was the leading rusher against the Cowboys with only 22 yards but he was also the most targeted RB while catching 5 passes for 59 yards on 8 targets. Ellington is super cheap in DraftKings at only $3,800 and has a nice matchup at home against the 49ers, the same 49ers team currently giving up just over 124 rushing yards per game and got ripped by Todd Gurley last week. Ellington isn’t Gurley, but he’s looked like Arizona’s best RB and won’t take much to triple up his price. If you want to plug in a guy who can help you fit in some high priced chalk at other positions, Ellington is an ideal target.

TE

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brate is the next guy up on the TE terror tour against the Giants. So far this year NYG have given up 18.9, 15.2, and 19.5 DraftKings points to tight ends this year, with all here starting TEs they’ve played scoring a touchdown. Brate has the experience playing with QB Jameis Winston and has been the much better option in the passing game between him and rookie OJ Howard. Brate is probably a guy you’re counting on to score a touchdown, but against the Giants he has good odds for a TE TD. With Janoris Jenkins probably matching up with Mike Evans, Brate should be a viable option in the red zone. His investment is low, and he could be a good contrarian play as Evans and DeSean Jackson will be the big receiving targets for most DFS lineups.

Honorable Mentions:

Tom Brady:

8 TDs in the last two weeks. A great play if you think Carolina can keep up.

Ezekiel Elliot:

DAL is a home favorite by 6.5 and has the 4th highest team implied total. He faces a Rams Defense that has given up the 2nd most points to opposing RBs in the league.

Desean Jackson:

If you don’t like Brate then you should like Jackson. WR2 have put up big points against the NYG as Jenkins has been shutting down WR1.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins:

JAC have great corner backs which leads to a passing defense that funnels towards the TE. ASJ was tied for a team high of 6 targets last week and played on over 75% of the teams snaps. He is a great punt play.

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