Oct 3, 2017
There’s always a tomorrow thanks to DFS, and hope springs eternal because of it. Week 4 was another tough one for the Mathletes, as we had another hit or miss week after two great weeks to start the season, followed by a mixed bag last week.
There’s no sugar coating it, Siemian didn’t get the fantasy job done. While a division win against Oakland is nice in real life, for DFS purposes this was not ideal. As a lower priced option heading into the game against Oakland, Siemian had some salary saving appeal over the higher priced options. Then, he went out and was able to just barely double up his pricing with just over 11 points. Not a disaster, but certainly not optimal for reaching the cash line. Denver was able to win the time of possession game, and things really slowed down a bit when Derek Carr left the game with a back injury, so this didn’t quite have the scoring punch it needed to really boost Siemian into triple-up territory. While the scoring wasn’t quite there for Siemian, his numbers weren’t that different from weeks 1 and 2, where a rushing TD against the Chargers and four passing TDs on just 22 completions really helped to boost his numbers. Siemian will probably not be a high yardage guy this season, or maybe ever, and with the Denver defense he probably won’t be in many high scoring shoot-outs. Moving forward, we should expect low floor, mid-ceiling type of production from him and knowing that adjust your expectations.
The Titans as a team had a day to forget against the Texans on Sunday. Matthews had a decent start, with 3 catches for 49 yards in the first half. Unfortunately, QB Marcus Mariota had to leave the game with a hamstring injury and Matthews didn’t get another catch the rest of the day, despite playing from behind the whole second half. Injuries are an inevitable part of the game, and while they cannot be predicted, the final results aren’t adjusted for them either. This was a wrong call but not a bad call. Matthews was getting work, and if he had matched his first half production with his starting QB, he would have tripled up his price. He still is someone who will get a good amount of volume if either Corey Davis or Eric Decker are out and Mariota is in, and he still is tied with Decker for the team lead in red zone targets while consistently being priced lower.
There was a lot to like about Chris Carson’s match-up heading into their game against the Indianapolis Colts. Carson had been the main guy working out of the Seahawks’ RB group as Thomas Rawls and CJ Prosise battled through injuries and Eddie Lacy was fighting a persistent case of being Eddie Lacy. He had been their most successful back in their week 2 win against the 49ers, and had scored the week before in close loss to Tennessee. Rawls and Prosise were both ruled out of the game against Indy with JD McKissic being Carson’s main competition for passing down work. Lacy was active but hadn’t shown much so far this season. The Seahawks did end up having a great day offensively, rushing for almost 200 yards and two TDs, but unfortunately, Carson wasn’t a huge factor. He did get the second most carries, with 12 for 42 yards while also contributing 3 catches for another 24 yards, but was unable to score. He also had seemed to settle into a pretty even split with Lacy right up until the end of the game when Carson suffered a significant leg injury which would turn out to be a fractured leg. He’s on the IR for now and the Seattle backfield continues to haunt fantasy players across the land.
Finally, a bit of good news for the Mathletes. Another messy bird based backfield out west is in Arizona, as the Cardinals have been a little lost divvying up the duties normally assigned to the injured David Johnson. Ellington was poised to expand on his previous role from the pre-DJ days, as a Darren Sproles-style receiving threat/timeshare runner with some good elusiveness. Chris Johnson and Kerwynn Williams both showed that they were no better than backups at this point, so heading into a game against the 49ers, Ellington seemed like a great play given his very low price point. He didn’t disappoint, even in a low scoring game. He finished with a nice line of 5 carries for 18 yards and 9 catches on 14 targets for another 86 yards and a very nice 19.4 DraftKings points. Given the aforementioned low score, Ellington showed what makes him so appealing as a cheap RB option: with his receiving ability he isn’t TD dependent like most guys in his price range. With teams rolling coverage to take Larry Fitzgerald out of the game, and none of the other RBs on the roster with his pass catching skill, Ellington will remain someone to target.
There are few things in fantasy more sure than this: the New York Giants cannot defend tight ends. We should all be looking to this trend and using it to our advantage until they prove something has changed. This week it was a combo of Cameron Brate and rookie OJ Howard that went off for a total of 143 yards and 2 TDs, with 80 yards and 1 TD going to Brate. Some of the yardage was a bit fluky as Howard in particular had a big chunk come on a blown coverage, but four weeks into this season and most of last season the Giants have shown an inability to account for opposing teams’ TEs. Brate did his work on 6 targets and 4 catches. Despite the wealth of pass catching options for QB Jameis Winston, Brate has still held his value as a good matchup play. That might change later on in the season as Howard’s role grows and with the play calling possibly changing with Doug Martin coming back from his suspension. But the main takeaway here is this: target TEs playing the Giants. This week, that honor falls to the Chargers combo of Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates.Back to DFS