Oct 28, 2017
Halfway there and we’ve hit the first big group of bye weeks with 5 teams out and some big names in fantasy. The main slate on DraftKings is down to 9 games with the Thursday night game, an early game in London, the Sunday night game, and Monday night game adding (or subtracting) from the player pool. This week the Mathletes have brought you some targets from the Sunday 1 and 4 o’clock slate of games.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
There’s been a lot of chatter this week about Andy Dalton against the Indianapolis Colts given the matchup and his low price, but I can’t be the only one who has been let down one too many times by Dalton. For just $800 dollars more I’d much rather use Wilson for $6500 against the Houston Texans in Seattle. The Houston defense has been easier to score against for QBs than RBs this year, which plays nicely to Seattle’s current situation. The Seahawks have had an ugly rotation of backs in and out of the lead role week to week, and because of the unclear production they have leaned on Wilson to do more. He has been averaging 22.1 points per game so far this year and had his second highest scoring game of the season against the last AFC South team that had to venture up to Seattle to play. On the other side of the ball, Houston has given up an average of 19.2 points per game against QBs, which would be just under Wilson’s triple up target of 19.5. If you want to target a mid-range QB this week, Wilson at home against a team who seems to be in open mutiny against their owner is as good as it gets.
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Thompson has been outstanding his year as a receiving threat out of the backfield for Washington, and that looks likely to continue this week. Despite not handling many rushing attempts for his team, Thompson has been great weapon by having by far the highest yards per reception for a RB in the league. In fact, he ranks 12th overall in that category (the next best RB is Lamar Miller, ranked 68th) and that has driven his value despite not getting the volume of other receiving backs like James White or Alvin Kamara. His opponent this week also happens to be one of the best possible matchups for Thompson’s skill set as Football Outsiders has the Dallas Cowboys ranked 30th in DVOA when it comes to defending pass catching RBs. Dallas is coming off a romp over the San Francisco 49ers and will be looking to get a win in their division on the road in Washington. Both of these teams lean more on their offenses to win and if it’s a high scoring affair that favors Thompson. He has been Washington’s most reliable pass catching option given the injuries to Jordan Reed, the inconsistencies from Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson on the outside, and the regression seen from Jamison Crowder. Thompson will be busy again Sunday and is not priced as what he has been, a WR2 with the upside and matchup to be even better than that.
Matt Forte, New York Jets
If you haven’t been paying attention, and really there hasn’t been much reason to, Forte has resumed his role as the main back in the Jets’ backfield. After missing a couple of games with knee and toe injuries he has returned to being the top back for the Jets. His snap count percentage since returning to action in Week 6 has been 57.9% and 50.0%. He’s been the main guy and during those same two weeks, Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire have seen their snap count percentages drop back to the 30s and below. Forte hasn’t been putting up huge point totals Week 6 and 7, but he has scored 16.1 and 13.1 points. Both totals would have been enough to triple up his price point this week with his price in DraftKings set at only $4200. Making his game this week look even better is a matchup with the Altanta Falcons. This year they’ve been giving up an average of 27.5 points in DraftKings to RBs, the 6th highest total. The Falcons just put up a lackluster game on the road against an AFC East opponent last week, and the Jets will be looking to catch them reeling. Forte is one of the few established guys they have on offense so look for him to get a lot of work.
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
So far this year, Jeffery hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. The targets have been here for Jeffery but the production has lagged behind. But, if you look closer at his season, Alshon’s struggles aren’t a lack of talent, just a run of bad matchups. Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) put out a tweet the other day that said Jeffery had the second highest % of routes run against top 25 rated CBs this year so far. He’s had 49% of his routes covered by the likes of Marcus Peters, Casey Hayward, Patrick Peterson, and Janoris Jenkins. It’s easy to say he’s been bad this year, but he has been operating in the Eagles’ offense and has been a good teammate pulling coverage for the other receivers. Now Jeffery gets a great matchup against a 49ers defense that has given up big days to Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, Jaron Brown, Robert Woods, and even made Sammy Watkins look good for one week. Wentz is rolling and with the 49ers defense, the average 7.7 targets Alshon has seen per week this season could turn out to be extremely valuable. The skill is there, the opportunity is there, and Jeffery will be without an injury designation this week. He’s ready to go and this should be the week the narrative of his season changes, for at least one week.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
After an uneven start to the season, including two games where he scored zero fantasy points, Henry has asserted himself as THE tight end on the Chargers. The transition has been made and Antonio Gates is no longer the elite option he used to be. As this season has progressed Gates has seen his usage drop and Henry’s snap count percentage hasn’t dipped below 75.6% in the last three games. During that time he’s also averaged 12.83 points in DraftKings and should be able to match that easily this week traveling to New England to take on the Patriots. That’s the same team whose defense finally held an opposing QB under 300 yards after being embarrassed by Alex Smith and Cam Newton in home losses and narrowly beating DeShaun Watson and Josh McCown in two tight wins. It hasn’t been the elite guys hurting the Pats, it’s been everyone, and New England has a long list of defenders either out or hurt coming into this game. The biggest loss was Dont’a Hightower, the Pats main signal caller on defense and the heart of their defense. They’ve also had Malcolm Brown, Eric Rowe, Elandon Roberts, Stephon Gilmore, Cassius Marsh, and Lawrence Guy miss time or be limited in practice his week. That’s a lot of guys missing from a defense that has been terrible against the pass this year. Henry has the talent to exploit a good defense and can devastate a bad one, and his price ($4800) has him in the mix as just another streaming option, but he’s capable of being the best option this week.Back to DFS