Nov 3, 2017
One more big week of BYEs to get through, as the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Los Angeles Chargers all take the week off. Aside from the big offensive names included on those teams, the bad defenses taken out of the player pool really hurts too. But, there are still some good values to be found and this week we’ll again take a look at the main slate of Sunday games to help build your DFS lineups.
In his second year in the NFL, Goff has made some very nice strides forward to temporarily quiet the bust talk that was developing around him last year. Goff has a road matchup against the New York Giants this week coming off his teams’ bye. He’s facing a Giants defense that has been in the bottom third of the league against the pass and the rush, and now will be without top cornerback Janoris Jenkins. With is $5500 price this week, he only needs to score 16.5 points to hit value. Looking at his season so far, Goff has hit value against teams that were ranked in the lower half of the league when it comes to pass defense, and struggled in the two games against teams that were 16 or above (per Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA ratings). Home or away hasn’t mattered as much as the defense he’s been facing. The Giants will also be coming into this game off of their bye week, but might be missing defensive lineman Olivier Vernon and Kerry Wynn, taking some more pressure away from the Rams’ offensive line. Goff should have an easy time hitting his value in a game the Rams need to win to keep up with a surging Seahawks team.
Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals
One great week followed by a terrible one has made predicting AD’s production a risky endeavor. But, facing a very weak San Francisco 49ers defense, Peterson finds himself with a very favorable matchup. Heading into their week 9 game, the 49ers rush defense is giving up the fourth most yards per game, the second most rushing TDs, and are ranked 25th per Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. Those numbers make the matchup look nice before you consider that the 49ers are also going to be without three defensive lineman (Aaron Lynch, Solomon Thomas, and D.J. Jones) who have already been ruled out for the game, linebacker Reuben Foster who is listed as questionable, and CB K’Waun Williams has also already been ruled out. Even with Arizona’s awful QB situation, Peterson and the Cards run game will get plenty of work. Peterson’s output was definitely hurt by the loss of Palmer, but most teams suffer a large drop off if their starting QB gets hurt and the Rams built up a sizable lead after the injury which affected the game script as well. With the bye last week, Arizona has had as much time as a backup gets in-season to prepare to become the starter and certainly the Cards’ path to success relies more on the run game than the arm of Drew Stanton. Only $5600, Peterson offers a good lower end target who should see a high volume of carries against a terrible and injury depleted defense.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers pulled off a shocking trade before the deadline this week, sending top WR Kelvin Benjamin over to the Buffalo Bills for a third and seventh round pick in the 2018 draft. This creates a unique situation in DFS games where other players on the Panthers will be automatically under priced with their changing roles, and especially for Funchess who becomes the new #1 WR for the Panthers. Only $5400 this week, he faces the Atlanta Falcons at home in a very nice matchup. Atlanta has really struggled in pass coverage this year, ranking in the lower half of the league in several defensive categories, like giving up the 8th best opposing QB passer rating (95.1) or having the second worst INT% with only the Oakland Raiders and their 0 INTs being worse. Funchess hasn’t had fewer than 6 targets in a game since week 2, and should see a nice bump up in that category with Benjamin and his 19% target share now in Buffalo. He’s priced as a low end WR2 and was already a great value against the Falcons in that position, but as the top option now, he’s an absolute steal.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
The hate has gone too far. Hilton has put up three consecutive stinkers, scoring 4.7 or less against the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans. As a result, he’s seen his price drop from $7700 to $4900. Hilton remains a #1 WR getting plenty of targets, is on a pace to finish with more than 1000 yards receiving, and has two games this year with 150+ yards. He’s priced below fellow disappointments DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery, and just ahead of secondary options Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp. Indy is playing a Houston Texans team that will be shocked into rallying around Tom Savage after the devastating loss of DeShaun Watson. Indy is home against a beat up Texans defense with 11 defensive players listed on the injury report, and that’s not factoring in losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to season ending injuries. Hilton has been frustrating to roster this year, but this is shaping up to be another big game for him.
In addition to everything I said about the Falcons’ defense in the Funchess section, there’s one more interesting thing that makes Dickson an interesting target this week. Benjamin had 6 of the 25 red zone targets for the Panthers this year, with only Christian McCaffrey having more (7). Ed Dickson in his career has only caught one touchdown outside of the red zone, and he is now third on the team in red one targets. With Funchess and McCaffrey being accounted for, Dickson now has a better opportunity in the red zone. He is definitely a very risky play, as he only has two games that would hit value on his low $3100 salary, but he’s a very interesting play this week. Everyone will be looking to Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and even Jack Doyle as a lower priced option, but Dickson is someone who is worth a look if you need some salary flexibility on your roster.Back to DFS